UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles Wait for This Target Price (Saturday, July 29)
Can Gabriel Bonfim keep his perfect record – and finishing rate – intact when he meets fellow welterweight Trevin Giles in the featured UFC 291 preliminary card bout on Saturday?
The betting market overwhelmingly thinks so, with Bonfim a substantial favorite over the streaky Giles, who quietly looks for this third straight victory.
Does either 170-pounder offer value from a betting perspective? Let's dig in.
Tale of the TapeBonfimGilesRecord14-416-4Avg. Fight Time2:3111:40Height6'1"6'0"Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.Reach (inches)72"74"StanceOrthodoxOrthodoxDate of birth8/20/19978/6/1992Sig Strikes Per Min6.952.99SS Accuracy38T%SS Absorbed Per Min5.762.09SS Defense65Y%Take Down Avg2.981.29TD Acc100U%TD Def100s%Submission Avg6.00.3The younger Bonfim, Gabriel, enters his second UFC fight as a significant favorite against the experienced Giles.
Gabriel Bonfim has finished both wins under the UFC banner by first-round submission, but we successfully bet against his brother, Ismael, as a significant favorite earlier this month.
Of the two brothers, I am higher on Gabriel, who has smooth boxing, underrated power, and a slick, opportunistic submission game.
Giles is the longer fighter (two-inch reach advantage), but Bonfim should have him covered everywhere, skill for skill.
Bonfim should also have the advantages in cardio and durability too.
Bonfim vs. Giles PickI projected Bonfim as a -330 favorite – in line with the lower end of the betting market – and I don't see value on either side of this fight.
However, I will be using Bonfim aggressively in DFS, and if his moneyline price drops to -315 or better, I'll consider finding a way to bet him.
UFC 291 Odds: Sean Zerillo's Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 11 FightsRead nowI don't see any value concerning the total or the prop market either. Bonfim's potential win condition is appropriately split between his knockout and submission props, and a potential club and sub is always in play against Giles.
Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for a more reasonable line on Bonfim in the future or hope he becomes overhyped after another quick finish and look for a more appropriate spot to bet against him. For now, there are better options.
The Pick: Pass