UFC 297 Odds & Prediction for Arnold Allen vs Movsar Evloev A Violent Lil Bet for PPV Opener (Saturday, January 20)
Here's everything you need to know about Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev on Saturday, Jan. 20 – our expert UFC prediction and pick for the UFC 297 pay-per-view opener.
We have an alleged "title eliminator" on our hands in this fight as two top-10 featherweights battle it out for a shot at the 145-pound title. At least in theory; we've seen plenty of promised title shots go wrong before.
England's Arnold Allen has already been in a similar spot before longtime guardian of the throne Max Holloway defeated him soundly in a five-round decision last April.
It was the first UFC loss for "Almighty" Allen, who now looks to hand undefeated Mosvar Evloev his first-ever defeat.
The Russian-born American Top Team prospect has been perfect thus far, but Evloev has shown holes in his game at times.
Will Allen be the first one to fully exploit them, or will Evloev continue his seemingly inevitable rise to the top? Let's look at the Allen vs. Evloev odds with my pick and prediction for Saturday's fight in Toronto.
Tale of the TapeAllenEvloevRecord19-217-0Avg. Fight Time13:2215:00Height5'8"5'7"Weight145.5 pounds145.75 poundsReach70 inches72 inchesStanceSouthpawOrthodoxDate of birth1/22/19942/11/1994Sig Strikes Per Min3.34.6SS Accuracy40I%SS Absorbed Per Min2.862.74SS Defense61a%Take Down Avg1.124.71TD Acc50P%TD Def76q%Submission Avg0.30.3Mosvar Evloev might be the closest thing to an old-school one-trick pony we have at the highest levels of the UFC. Sure, we have the occasional jiu-jitsu specialist, but they tend to falter long before cracking the top 10.
Evloev does one thing extremely well: wrestle. His 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes is a far more telling stat than his takedown accuracy, but even that is well above average. That's because he relentlessly pursues the takedown, occasionally being credited with multiple attempts as he chains together techniques.
What Evloev doesn't do is finish fights.
He rarely even attempts submissions – just two officially in nine fights – and the majority of his significant strikes come on the ground.
Evloev prioritizes establishing and maintaining dominant position over hunting finishes, which is a great way to win fights – but not always the most exciting.
That can work against him at times, particularly against submission specialists.
He was dangerously close to being submitted by Diego Lopes in the first round of his last fight, but he gritted out some close calls before taking over. That was against a fighter in Lopes who came in on just a few days' notice; a fresher Lopes may have finished this one.
Still, Evloev's a tough man to put away with 61% striking defense and no knockdowns suffered, so it's worked for him thus far.
It's a drastically different style than that of Allen, a well-rounded overall fighter whose best attribute is his striking.
UFC 297 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Strickland vs. Du Plessis & MoreRead nowAllen's knockdown average is closer to that of a light heavyweight than a featherweight, and he finished his last two victories by KO or TKO – though one was due to an injury to Calvin Kattar.
He's solid everywhere, with a strong 76% takedown defense that's improved as his career progressed.
None of Allen's last eight opponents was able to ground him, and he submitted two of the previous three who had.
Still, he hasn't fought an opponent like Evloev, and he will likely end up on his back at some point. He's been good at escaping back to his feet when needed, but it's been a long time since we saw that ability tested.
On the feet, he's a fast starter who likes to blitz early, overwhelming opponents with awkward angles from his southpaw stance.
That could create opportunities for Evloev to score takedowns, but it also gives Allen a chance to find a home for one of his big left hands.
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Allen vs. Evloev PickEvloev is around a 2-1 moneyline favorite in this fight, which feels about right. While he's slipped up at times, it's incredibly hard to take rounds on the scorecards from him, given his prioritization of top position and takedowns over taking risks to finish the fight.
However, it's also hard to see Evloev finishing this one. He's had moments on the feet, but he hasn't shown much power.
Allen, meanwhile, is both incredibly durable and hard to hit (by everyone not named Holloway). He is also a jiu-jitsu brown belt, and he's probably the better pure submission grappler.
UFC 297 Props: Guest Picker Chuck Mindenhall Joins the MMA Prop SquadRead nowOn the other hand, there are a couple of paths to a finish from Allen. The obvious one is a knockout, if Allen is able to either keep or return this fight to the feet. A submission is possible too, though. Both of Allen's UFC submissions came from catching opponents attempting takedowns, and Evloev could get desperate (or tired) enough to leave his neck out there.
Which makes the betting angle here fairly straightforward: If you want to take a big swing, Arnold Allen by any finish is as high as +460 at FanDuel. If he wins this one, that's probably how.
I'm taking a more measured approach, though.
Allen in the "decision no bet" market is -134 at FanDuel. That means if the fight goes to the judges, your bet gets refunded – so the only way to lose would be Evloev picking up his first UFC finish. I'd bet against that down to -150.
The Pick: Arnold Allen Decision No Bet (-134 at FanDuel)
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