West Ham vs Man United Prediction English Premier League Picks
Saturday, Dec. 237:30 a.m. ETUSA Network
West Ham Odds+160Man United Odds+160Draw+260Over / Under2.5 -143 / +110Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
West Ham host Manchester United in a top half of the table clash at the London Stadium.
The Hammers crashed out of the League Cup on Wednesday, losing 5-1 to Liverpool, but they have actually been in really good form in the Premier League winning four of their last six matches. David Moyes is always going to grab the headlines against his former club, but for the Hammers three points would mean a lot to get into a European spot in the table.
Manchester United survived an onslaught at Anfield on Sunday, keeping a clean sheet despite Liverpool taking 34 shots on their net. The Red Devils have been pretty poor this entire Premier League campaign and with injuries that have stacked up, it doesn't look like things are going to get much better any time soon.
Here is my West Ham vs Man United prediction.
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West HamEven though West Ham are sitting in the top half of the table, they are one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League and Liverpool exposed that in the League Cup on Wednesday. Moyes wants his team to sit in a compact low defensive block, but they aren't any good in it.
In 17 Premier League matches, West Ham hashaveallowed 29.1 expected goals, which is the fourth-most in the Premier League. Here is the problem, if you are going to play as passive as West Ham do and basically allow your opponent to walk the ball into your final third, you have to be good at keeping opponents out of your penalty area.
West Ham are 11th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed, which is really concerning considering they are allowing the secon-most final third and box entries in the Premier League.
The West Ham offense is starting to look pretty dangerous. Since they play in a low block, West Ham like to play super direct, but the attackers they have at their disposal can give Manchester United a lot of problems. With Michael Antonio injured, Jarrod Bowen has been playing as the No. 9 and flourishing in the role. Bowen already has 10 goals this season with a 0.41 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, which is the best of his career.
Mohmmed Kudus, who came over from Ajax at the transfer deadline, has proven to be a problem for opposing defenses given his dribbling ability, pace and deadly finishing ability, because he already has five goals in the Premier League off of just 1.7 expected.
There are so many problems happening with Manchester United right now, but more than anything it comes down to injuries. Erik Ten Hag came into the season with this idea that Manchester United was going to be a team that could build out of the back and control matches similar to how Arsenal and Manchester City are these days, which is why they made signings like Andre Onana and Mason Mount.
Because of injuries they haven't been able to play that style, which means they have to play much more transitional than they would like. Essentially what is happening is because Manchester United can't build out of back with a lot of success, they are utilizing a 3-1-6 build up structure and sending the ball from the center backs up to the forward line in hope of winning aerial duals. They've tried some different build up structure, but without guys like Lisandro Martinez, Harry Maguire, Diogo Dalot, and Christian Eriksen available, it makes it real hard for Manchester United to control matches with regularity.
The other big problem for Manchester United has been their defense. For the longest time, Manchester United were completely reliant on Casemiro to be their only ball stopper in transition defense. It worked for a period of time, but he is now injured, which means it's on Sofyan Amrabat. When you build up in a 3-1-6 and lose the ball, you only have one player in the middle of the pitch to stop transition attacks, which has left Manchester United exposed.
The Red Devils have only held two of their 17 Premier League opponents under one expected goal: Luton Town and Crystal Palace. That is really bad for a Big Six club and it doesn't look like things are getting better anytime soon.
West Ham vs Man UnitedPrediction
This match has the potential to be incredibly back and forth with both teams at their best when they're playing in transition. The biggest thing is once that first goal goes in, it's going to be complete chaos. Both West Ham and Manchester United are allowing over two expected goals per 90 minutes when playing from behind.
Manchester United are going to try and press West Ham high, but the Hammers are going to just send the ball long to evade it, which means Manchester United's transition defense is going to be put to the test again. With the form Kudus and Bowen have been in, they are going to give Manchester United a lot of problems on Saturday.
I have 3.38 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on a plus money over.
Pick: Over 3 (+120 via BetRivers)