UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mauricio Ruffy vs Jamie Mullarkey: Follow the Steam? (Saturday, May 4)
Here's everything you need to know about the Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4 – with our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 301 early preliminary card features two unranked lightweight contenders as Mauricio Ruffy takes takes on Jamie Mullarkey at 155 pounds.
The steam is certainly on Ruffy in this matchup. He opened at -132 and is now listed as wide as -215 at the time of writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite in my Ruffy vs. Mullarkey preview for UFC 301.
Tale of the TapeRuffyMullarkeyRecord9-117-7Avg. Fight Time14:459:55Height5'11"6'0"Weight (pounds)156 lbs.155 lbs.Reach (inches)75"74"StanceOrthodoxOrthodoxDate of birth6/17/19968/17/1994Sig Strikes Per Min4.754.46SS Accuracy58F%SS Absorbed Per Min4.074.49SS Defense58T%Take Down Avg0.002.42TD Acc04%TD Def100v%Submission Avg0.00.1Mauricio Ruffy makes his first official walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday following his TKO win over Raimond Magomedaliev on Dana White's Contender Series in October. T
That win moved Ruffy's professional MMA record to 9-1 with all nine (!!) of those wins coming by KO or TKO.
The guy hits like a horse, though his technical ability is still in progress (but improving!). The last part of that sentence is why Ruffy is "only" -215.
UFC 301 Odds & Predictions: Sean Zerillo's Betting Preview for All 13 FightsRead nowHe has shown thus far that he really is just dependent on that one shot, but the reason I like him in this matchup is because one shot is all it might take against Jamie Mullarkey, who has been knocked out in each of his past three losses. Mullarkey's chin is starting to give out on him, which is the worst disadvantage possible against a guy like Ruffy.
One shot from Jalin Turner made Mullarkey turtle up along the bottom of the fence before the ref had to step in. One shot from Muhammad Naimov sat Mullarkey down and into a ground-and-pound defeat, and Nasrat Haqparast knocked down Mullarkey twice in under two minutes before winning by TKO.
Whether it is one shot or cumulative damage, Mullarkey has been prone to devastating KO losses over the past couple of years.
Ruffy vs. Mullarkey PickIf you like the favorite in this fight, then it just makes way more sense to back him in the KO/TKO market at +100 rather than laying -205 on the moneyline. Ruffy is a one-dimensional fighter thus far in his MMA career, relying on that one punch to secure victories.
Now, that has worked out well for him so far, but now he is going to be going against the world's best fighters. While I am concerned about his well-roundedness moving forward, he can continue to rely on that one-punch power for at least one more fight as he goes against the vulnerable Mullarkey.
Overall, Mullarkey is the more talented MMA practitioner of the two. However, his chin is starting to fail him, and that makes this matchup against Ruffy a terrible draw.
Ruffy is two years younger, had an inch longer in reach, and he has lost just one pro bout over his first 10. This is just a bad matchup for Mullarkey, and I don't trust his chin to hold up for three rounds against a guy of Ruffy's power.
The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (+100 at FanDuel)
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