Man United vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds Premier League Match Preview
Sunday, Jan. 1411:30 a.m. ETPeacock
Man United Odds+115Tottenham Odds+210Draw+280Over / Under2.5 -250 / +187Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
Here's everything you need to know about Man United vs. Tottenham on Sunday, Jan. 14 — our expert prediction and odds for today.
Man United and Tottenham meet on Sunday for a huge clash in the top half of the table.
Things are not going well at Manchester United at the moment. They only have two wins in their last seven Premier League matches with Erik Ten Hag's seat starting to get warm. They did beat Wigan Athletic in the FA Cup on Monday, but the performances have been far from elite all season long. They need three points here to stay in the race for a European spot.
Tottenham are starting to finally get healthy, but they will be severely undermanned in this match. Their star forward Heung-Min Son is off to represent South Korea at the Asian Cup along with two of their best midfielders. Ange Postecoglu's side has been up and down in terms of form, but it did beat Manchester United early in the season and have a good chance at three points here.
Read on for my Man United vs Tottenham prediction.
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Man UnitedThere are so many problems happening with Manchester United right now, but more than anything it comes down to injuries. Erik Ten Hag came into the season with this idea that Manchester United was going to be a team that controls matches and builds out of the back. It's a big reason why they signed Andre Onana, but that has not been the case. As you can see below, because of injuries, Manchester United don't have the personnel to progressing the ball efficiently up the field from playing out of the back.
Compared to last season, Man United's “ball progression efficiency” indicates noticeable drop-offs in the attacking group, highlighting the absence of irreplaceable individuals like Shaw, alongside an upgrade in the goalkeeper position pic.twitter.com/QGBf6GqbOa
— markstats (@markrstats) January 9, 2024
They haven't been able to play that style, which means they have to play much more transitional than they would like. Essentially what is happening is because Manchester United can't build out of back with a lot of success, they are utilizing a 3-1-6 build up structure and sending the ball from the center backs up to the forward line in hope of winning aerial duels. For this match, because Amrabat is off to represent Morocco at the Africa Cup of Nations, Ten Hag is going to be forced to either play 18-year old Kobbie Mainoo alongside McTominay or start Christian Eriksen. Either way it's not an ideal scenario facing a team that is going to press relentlessly like Tottenham.
The other big problem for Manchester United has been their defense. For the longest time, Manchester United were completely reliant on Casemiro to be their only ball stopper in transition defense. It worked for a period of time, but he is now injured, which means it's on Soctt McTominay, Eriksen or Mainoo. When you build up in a 3-1-6 and lose the ball, you only have one player in the middle of the pitch to stop transition attacks, which has left Manchester United exposed because McTominay's best asset is crashing the box and scoring from around the edge of the penalty area, so who's going to stop Tottenham going forward in transition?
The Red Devils' defense has been so bad that they have only held three of their 20 Premier League opponents under one expected goal: Luton Town, Crystal Palace, and Nottingham Forest. That is really bad for a 'Big Six' club and it doesn't look like things are getting better anytime soon.
Tottenham are going to be limited in this match because three of their most important players Heung-Min Son, Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr are off to represent their countries at the Asian Cup and AFCON.
Son is incredibly important to this Tottenham team because he has been their most consistent attacker this season. He has 12 goals and is putting up a 0.70 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is by far the highest on the team. However, that doesn't mean the Tottenham attack is going to be completely helpless here. Brennan Johnson has been really good ever since moving over from Nottingham Forest, putting up a 0.63 xG + xA per 90 minute rate and Richarlison is starting to find his form in front of net, scoring five goals in his last five appearances.
The problem with this match is Tottenham are going to have very little in their midfield. Bissouma and Sarr are incredible pressing and ball winning midfielders, so without them it's going to be difficult for Tottenham to prevent Manchester United from playing through the middle of the pitch if they attack them transitionally.
Tottenham have been struggling with their two starting center backs. Since November 11th when Van de Ven and Romero went down, Tottenham have allowed 19.7 expected goals in nine matches. They have been saved by Vicario's shot stopping, as he leads the Premier League with a +6.7 post shot xG +/-. van de Ven is back from injury, but who knows if he actually plays a full 90 minutes here and how effective he is coming off that hamstring injury.
Man United vs TottenhamPrediction
With both of these teams not having a lot possession-dominant midfielders available, this has the feel of an up and down transitional based match, which means we will likely see a lot of chances at both ends of the pitch.
Tottenham love to play a high defensive line and press their opponents high, which actually does give Manchester United a good chance here of creating some chances. If you go back to Manchester United's 3-2 win over Aston Villa, basically the only reason they were able to complete that come back was because of playing balls in behind Aston Villa's high line.
Even though Tottenham are going to be without Son, the improvements of Johnson and Richarlison alongside Kulusevski, who leads them in a lot of important categories like penalty area touches, passes into the penalty area and crosses completed into the penalty area should give Tottenham enough fire power to create a lot of chances against a below average Manchester United defense.
So, I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+107 via BetRivers)